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From: Hatunen on 17 Apr 2010 14:12 On Sat, 17 Apr 2010 14:21:20 +0200, Wolfgang Schwanke <see(a)sig.nature> wrote: >"Mike" <checkedmonthly(a)live.com> wrote in >news:bh9js5lvgrv49j3q2k9nam191mumci3gm1(a)4ax.com: > >> On Sat, 17 Apr 2010 14:06:48 +0200, Wolfgang Schwanke <see(a)sig.nature> >> wrote: >> >>>There are volcano eruptions all the time somewhere in the world, many >>>of which much worse, but they don't each time shut down air traffic >>>over entire continents; most of the time they don't do it at all. The >>>fact that Europe decides to be more cautios is due to cultural >>>differences, but not because this eruption is particularly bad. Once >>>the ash of the Iceland eruption is attenuated below a certain >>>concentration they can start flying again, even with the shy European >>>mindset. >> >> there are frequent volcanoes in Iceland, mostly not of this type and >> not with a NW wind, this one is a problem, ask an aero engineer. > >I don't doubt that it's a problem, but the risk assessment involved in >the shutdown decision is culturally influenced. Surely volcanic >eruptions with similar ash clouds in the Pacific rim countries are much >more frequent than in Europe, but people there just cope somehow. And >actually they do have incidents with aircraft. The shutdown is culturally influenced at least in part befause of te risk of a lot of very expensive law suits should an airliner crash due to the ash. Less cynically, I'm not sure what the risk probability is that ought to trigger a shutdown: 10%? 1%? .005%? What say you? At what percentage would you be willing to board such a flight? Prevailing winds being more or less westerly, in much of the world volcanoes are distributed so that ash plumes tend to blow away from areas where they might be problematic, or over areas that are fairly barren. For isntance, volcanoes on the western side of the Pacific in the Ring of Fire mostly blow out over the Pacific. The eruption of a volcano where the prevailing winds are likely to carry the ash over heavily populated areas with a high volume of air traffic are somewhat unlikely. The eruption of Pinatuba in 1991 caused considerable ash problems including the closing, and finally the abandonment, of a USAF base in the Phillipines. But most of the ash was carried out over the Pacific and air traffic could be routed around the plume. The eruption of Mt St Helens disrupted air traffic considerably in 1980, but the Pacific Northwest and the area to the west wherethe ash was carried was not heavily populated, cities like Spokane being the metro areas involved, and the ash kept to a fairly narrow plume. So it's mostly an accident of geography. This Icelandic eruption just happens to be located in a most unfortunate place, where air traffic cannot be re-routed for the simple reason that there is a high concentration of ultimate destination and departure airports which lie under the path of the ash. -- ************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen(a)cox.net) ************* * Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow * * My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *
From: Hatunen on 17 Apr 2010 14:13 On Sat, 17 Apr 2010 12:14:25 +0200, Martin <me(a)address.invalid> wrote: >On Fri, 16 Apr 2010 22:27:31 +0200, Wolfgang Schwanke <see(a)sig.nature> wrote: > >>"EvelynVogtGamble(Divamanque)" <evgmsop(a)earthlink.net> >>wrote in news:hq81gq04tv(a)news6.newsguy.com: >> >>> Interesting that the news story mentions the effects of an >>> 1821 eruption lasting for two years - that was before jet aircraft. How >>> might a similar situation affect worldwide air travel, now? >> >>That was probably about the climatic effect. It's unlikely that >>aviation will be affected longer than a couple of days. > >It is already longer than a couple of days :o) Apparently, the same volcano erupted for two years in 1821... -- ************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen(a)cox.net) ************* * Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow * * My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *
From: Hatunen on 17 Apr 2010 14:18 On Sat, 17 Apr 2010 12:13:56 +0100, "Mike" <checkedmonthly(a)live.com> wrote: >On Thu, 15 Apr 2010 09:44:20 -0700 (PDT), Surreyman ><alandavid.spencer(a)googlemail.com> wrote: > >>No air flights not nowhere in or out of the UK today. > >heres the answer:- >"http://www.amphicars.com/acpics.htm" Back in the 1960s I lived in Louisville Kentucky where a man owned one of these cars. It got considerble play in the local media. Then, one day, the local Coast Guard gave a number of citations to the owner for having a boat not displaying proper marine navigation ights, not being registered as a boat, having too big an engine for the boat's size, etc., etc. -- ************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen(a)cox.net) ************* * Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow * * My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *
From: aquachimp on 17 Apr 2010 14:26 On Apr 17, 12:14 pm, Martin <m...(a)address.invalid> wrote: > On Fri, 16 Apr 2010 22:27:31 +0200, Wolfgang Schwanke <s...(a)sig.nature> wrote: > >"EvelynVogtGamble(Divamanque)" <evgm...(a)earthlink.net> > >wrote innews:hq81gq04tv(a)news6.newsguy.com: > > >> Interesting that the news story mentions the effects of an > >> 1821 eruption lasting for two years - that was before jet aircraft. How > >> might a similar situation affect worldwide air travel, now? > > >That was probably about the climatic effect. It's unlikely that > >aviation will be affected longer than a couple of days. > > It is already longer than a couple of days :o) > -- > > Martin & what my wife wants to know is "how will Obama go to Poland for the funeral?"
From: Hatunen on 17 Apr 2010 14:42
On Sat, 17 Apr 2010 11:26:55 -0700 (PDT), aquachimp <aquachimp(a)aquachimp.freeserve.co.uk> wrote: >On Apr 17, 12:14�pm, Martin <m...(a)address.invalid> wrote: >> On Fri, 16 Apr 2010 22:27:31 +0200, Wolfgang Schwanke <s...(a)sig.nature> wrote: >> >"EvelynVogtGamble(Divamanque)" <evgm...(a)earthlink.net> >> >wrote innews:hq81gq04tv(a)news6.newsguy.com: >> >> >> Interesting that the news story mentions the effects of an >> >> 1821 eruption lasting for two years - that was before jet aircraft. �How >> >> might a similar situation affect worldwide air travel, now? >> >> >That was probably about the climatic effect. It's unlikely that >> >aviation will be affected longer than a couple of days. >> >> It is already longer than a couple of days :o) >> -- >> >> Martin > >& what my wife wants to know is "how will Obama go to Poland for the >funeral?" He didn't. -- ************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen(a)cox.net) ************* * Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow * * My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps * |